DNV: Aging fleet drives 42% increase in marine casualties

Image: DNV

Driven mainly by an aging fleet, the number of maritime casualty incidents has increased by 42% between 2018 and 2024, while during the same period the global fleet grew by just 10%. According to DNV, the findings in its latest report, “Maritime Safety Trends 2014-2024 – Preparing for future risks,” highlight the risks connected with operating older ships, which are often more prone to faults, groundings, and fire-related incidents.

The report is derived from a dataset, provided by Lloyd’s List Intelligence, containing more than 2,200 recorded casualty incidents per year since 2021. Machinery damage/failure was responsible for the highest number of casualty incidents in all years, with this climbing to 60% of all cases in 2024 – up from 38% a decade ago. The data shows a clear correlation between vessel age and operational reliability with incidents involving vessels more than 25 years old, accounting for 41% of all reported cases, up from 32% in 2014. In all age groups machinery damage/failure incidents grew by 20% in 2024.

“As freight rates surged in a tonne-miles driven market, many shipowners delayed scrapping older vessels, which put seafarers, cargo and the environment at greater risk,” said DNV Maritime CEO Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen. “The industry must act decisively to improve safety standards amid an ageing fleet. This includes upgrading fire suppression systems, enforcing stricter maintenance, boosting seafarer training, and ensuring regulatory compliance. We must also support seafarers with adequate rest and shore leave.”

Some other findings in the report underscore the correlation between the aging fleet and incident rates:

“Over half (52%) of all incidents in 2024 were attributable to vessels 20 years of age or older, with 41% of incidents for vessels in the 25+ age category. In contrast, 41% of incidents in 2014 came from vessels over 20 years old, with 32% coming from the 25+ age category.

“The statistics also show that the growth in incidents in 2024 is mainly being driven by the older portion of the fleet. In real terms, the number of casualties rose by 358 between 2023 and 2024. Some 285 of these incidents came from vessels over 25 years old, representing 80% of all incident growth. Of these, 236 (83%) were attributable to machinery damage/failure.

“For machinery damage/failures, age is an even bigger fac- tor. In 2024, a total of 45% of these kinds came from vessels over 25 years of age, with a further 12% in the 20-24 age category. In 2014, the corresponding figures were 39% and 9%, respectively. The ageing fleet is also a significant factor in the number of hull damages, which increased by 7% to reach 114 inci-dents in 2024. Some 46% of hull damages were attributable to vessels which were 20 years or older.”

Among other findings, the report notes a rise in fire and explosion incidents, with a 42% increase in the past four years. The passenger and ferry segments recorded the highest number of casualty incidents over the monitored period. Highlighting the growing impact of geopolitical instability on maritime safety, war loss casualty incidents increased from 12 in 2023 to 51 in 2024.

Despite the aging fleet, the report also highlights a positive trend: casualties from collisions, groundings, and sinkings have decreased by 26% compared to 2014 levels. While there was a slight uptick in contact-related incidents in 2023 and 2024, the overall number of accident-based casualties remains well below 2014 figures.

“To mitigate future risks, there is a need for thorough risk-assessments in the development of new technologies, particularly in areas where regulation is lacking or non-existent,” said Øystein Goksøyr, head of department safety, risk and systems at DNV Maritime. “Integrating the human element alongside technological advancements significantly improves safety outcomes. This means updating and enhancing safety protocols, alongside improved crew training.”

• Download the full report HERE