Can Prosperity Guardian plans counter Houthi threat to shipping?

U. S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin . [DOD photograph]

Ahead of a widely expected announcement from U. S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin the Norwegian Government said today that the U.S. has taken the initiative to strengthen international efforts to secure civilian shipping in the Red Sea through an operation called Prosperity Guardian.

The operation is thought to center on conveying merchant ships with naval escorts. The move comes as Houthi attacks on merchant shipping continue, with reports that this morning two more ships had been struck. Al Jazeera reports Houthi spokesperson Yahya Sarea as identifying the vessels as the MSC Clara and Norwegian-owned Swan Atlantic.

The Houthi actions have seen demands for action from shipping bodies. BIMCO said today that it believes nation states must collaborate to remove the current threat to international shipping and, “if necessary, neutralize the threat by military means within the boundaries of international law.”

Whether Prosperity Guardian will “neutralize the threat by military means” remains to be seen. It is being established within the framework of the international maritime coalition in the area, Combined Maritime Forces (CMF). While the U.S. has been reaching out to other CMF partners on Prosperity Guardian, Norway is the first to release any official comment, saying that, initially, it will strengthen its contribution to the headquarters of the CMF in Bahrain with up to ten staff officers.

“Norway has one of the largest merchant fleets in the world and it is in Norway’s interest to contribute to ensuring safe transport at sea,” said Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram. “We have unique expertise in maritime operations and have experience from previous operations in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The Norwegian staff officers’ tasks will be to coordinate with and ensure safe passage for civilian vessels.”

“As we have more information about both the situation and the new operation, we will be able to assess other types of contributions,” added Gram.

THREAT TO SUEZ CANAL TRANSITS

There are already signs that the Houthis’ actions could lead to the Suez Canal supply chain disruptions that shipping analyst Peter Sand warned of last week (see story), with MSC and CMA CGM joining Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd in pausing Red Sea and Suez Canal voyages.

As of yesterday, according to Admiral Ossama Rabiee, chairman and managing director of the Suez Canal Authority, traffic through the canal was flowing normally.

Admiral Rabiee said that the authority is watching the ongoing tensions in the Red Sea closely and examining their effect on the navigation traffic through the Canal in the light of announcements by some shipping lines that they are switching ships to the Cape of Good Hope route temporarily.

He pointed to the shift of 55 vessels to the Cape of Good Hope route during the period from November 19 and to the present describing it as a significantly low number when compared to the number of 2128 vessels transited the Canal in that period.

Adm. Rabiee noted that 77 vessels transited the Canal, Sunday, with a total net tonnage amounting to 4 million tons, among them a number of vessels from lines that have announced a temporary switch from the Suez Canal temporarily. Sunday, the vessels Maersk Saigon, CMA CGM Christophe Colomb, and  MSC Fabienne transited among the north-bound convoy. All had been present in the Red Sea region before the announcements of the route switch to the Cape of Good Hope route by their owners.

Clearly, the Suez Canal Authority will be a major beneficiary if Prosperity Guardian strengthens shipowners’ confidence.