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New Ambrey threat circular says Houthi attack risk continues

Written by Nick Blenkey
Ambrey makes new Houthi threat assesssment

Houthi attacks on merchant ships, such as last year's on True Confidence, have been deadly. [Photo: CENTCOM}

In a new threat circular, maritime risk consultancy Ambrey notes that, in response to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, the Houthis have announced a cessation of hostilities toward most shipping

However, notes Ambrey, Israel-owned and -flagged shipping transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait continues to be targeted..

Merchant vessels continue to be at risk due to the fragility of the ceasefire and the potential for Houthi subjectivity to result singular attacks.

This cessation of hostilities relies on the U.S. and U.K. stopping military operations against the Houthi in Yemen – and this, notes Ambrey is dependent on Houthi operations against Israel, naval assets, and merchant shipping. (The last reported CENTCOM attack on Houthi installations in Yemen occurred January 3.)

A reduction of risk to shipping is assessed almost certain to occur gradually as the Houthi intent is supported by actions – i.e. no military operations against shipping.

This constitutes the Houthi intent at least until Israel and Hamas reach agreement on the terms of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire and commence its implementation, says Ambrey. “Phase 1” is set to last 42 days from January 19, 2025, with an agreement on “Phase 2” to be reached by week 5. The coming weeks will provide the proof of whether the Houthi follow suit with their stated intent.

  • The full Threat Circular gives Ambrey’s complete analysis and threat mitigation advice. Download it HERE
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