Study: OSV and MODU fleets set for growth

modu chartMAY 14, 2013 — The offshore support vessel and mobile rig fleets are set for major growth says a new 200 page, $1,950 report – entitled "Offshore Support Vessels and Mobile Rigs: Global Prospects to 2025" – from U.K. based Ocean Shipping Consultants.

Forecast development of mobile rig fleet

With growing global energy demand, offshore oil production is forecast to increase by 55 percent from current production levels to reach over 36 million bbl/day by 2025. Offshore gas production is also forecast to increase during this period, by 22 percent to over 1,000 billion cu.m/yr.

The forecast increase in offshore production will stimulate the demand for mobile rigs and the offshore support vessel fleets. Overall forecasts highlight that the mobile rig fleet will increase by 41 percent compared to the current fleet during the study period to approximately 1,100 active rigs. To service the increase in the number of rigs the Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS) fleet is forecast to grow by 41 percent to 3,900 vessels, whilst the Platform Supply Vessel (PSV) fleet is forecast to increase by approximately 40 percent over 3,200 vessels by the end of the study period.

There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding future offshore projects. This dictates a wide range of potential production volumes that could come on-stream during the study period.

Under the Base Case, world offshore oil production is forecast to increase throughout the study period. Overall, offshore oil production is forecast to increase from 23.4 million bbl/day to 26.7m bbl/day by 2015 and to 36.3m bbl/day by 2025. This equates to an increase of 55 percent during the study period. Under the Base Case, world offshore gas production is also forecast to increase throughout the study period. Overall, offshore gas production is forecast to increase from 876 billion cu.m during 2011 to 923 billion cu.m by 2015 and to 1,068 billion cu.m by the end of the study period. This equates to an increase of 22 percent.

Future Mobile Rig Fleet Development

The culmination of increased offshore oil and gas extraction, and the forecast increase in the number of offshore wells drilled during the study period, suggests that the number of active mobile rigs is set to show further growth throughout the forward period.

Average annual newbuilding levels are forecast to remain high throughout the study period at approximately 30 units per year. There have been a number of years when this figure has been exceeded, such as in the early-1980s and each year since 2008. Scrapping volumes are forecast at between 8-12 units per year. Under this scenario, approximately 17 percent of the current fleet will be scrapped. The mobile rig fleet is forecast to increase by 30 percent to over 1,060 rigs by 2020. By the end of the study period, a further increase of 9 percent is expected with approximately 1,160 active mobile rigs. Overall, the mobile rig fleet is forecast to increase by 41 percent above current levels.

ahts casesFuture AHTS Fleet Development

The future demand prospects for AHT/S vessels are principally a function of offshore production levels and future rig activity.

Forecast AHTS fleet development

For the Base Case, annual newbuilding levels are forecast at approximately 120 per year. The number of vessels scrapped each year is forecast to be approximately 30 units. This against a current fleet total of approximately 2,850 vessels.

The AHTS fleet is forecast to increase at a rate of approximately 2.5 percent per annum. Overall, the fleet is forecast to increase by 10 percent to approximately 3,070 units by 2015. This is set to increase by a further 15 percent to over 3,500 vessels by 2020 and then increase by 12 percent to over 3,900 vessels by the end of the study period. Overall, the AHTS fleet is forecast to increase by 41 percent above current fleet levels.

psv casesFuture Platform Supply Vessel Fleet Development

The current world offshore platform/supply vessel (PSV) fleet equates to over 2,350 vessels. The development of the sector will develop in line with offshore production patterns. PSV demand will be boosted in the future with the trend towards more remote and harsher environments.

Forecast PSV fleet development

For the Base Case, annual newbuilding levels are forecast at approximately 100 per year – this is around the yearly average of deliveries since 2000. The number of vessels scrapped each year is forecast to be approximately 30 units.

The PSV fleet is forecast to increase at a rate of approximately 3.0 percent per annum. Overall, the fleet is forecast to increase by 13 percent to approximately 2,600 vessels by 2015, followed by a further increase of 13 percent to over 2,900 vessels by 2020 and then a further 10 percent to over 3,200 vessels by the end of the study period. Overall, the PSV fleet is forecast to increase by 40 percent over current fleet levels.

More details HERE

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