Op-Ed: Navigating opportunities in the 2025 insurance market
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Houthi attacks on merchant ships, such as last year's on True Confidence, have been deadly. [Photo: CENTCOM]
By Simon de Burgh Codrington, Managing Director, Risk Strategies
The marine insurance industry continues to navigate uncertain waters in 2025.
Prices in the global marine cargo market are starting to ease. Importers and exporters now have more room to negotiate. Still, cargo theft is a growing problem, with incidents up 27% in 2024. Organized crime groups are more sophisticated, utilizing phishing scams on shippers, generating fraudulent Bills of Lading making strong risk management more important than ever.
The impact of tariffs on cargo patterns or shipping volumes is still uncertain. Some businesses are storing significantly larger volumes in bonded warehouses. Monitor your risk exposures, especially based on location. Ensure you have adequate catastrophe insurance for events like earthquakes.
Ocean marine and blue water: new capacity eases insurance premiums
Global events are impacting the ocean marine and blue water shipping industry. The Russia-Ukraine war is disrupting Black Sea trade, Houthi activity is affecting navigation through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, and infrastructure sabotage is occurring in the Baltic. Rising tensions between China and Taiwan, as well as between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, add to the daily uncertainty shipowners face—putting all trade route viability into question.
Hull and machinery premiums have now dropped by 4–7.5% in 2025, with further reductions likely in 2026, driven by new insurance capacity. However, this downward trend may be short-lived, as claims are expected to rise with the shift to new, more efficient engines and fuels, raising questions about whether crews can keep up with the evolving technology. Higher steel and labor costs, along with limited shipyard space, are also pushing claim expenses up.
Meanwhile, the war risks market remains tense amid ongoing conflicts in the Black and Red seas, and growing concerns around India and Pakistan.
The P&I sector has already faced several large claims in 2025, and ongoing financial market instability, currency fluctuations, and uncertain investment returns make future predictions difficult. The potential impact of global trade shifts from tariffs adds yet another layer of volatility heading into 2026.
Coastal marine and liability
While the sharp rate hikes for coastal marine operations have eased, prices are stabilizing, and occasional modest rate reductions are being obtained heralding what may be the beginning of a soft market. And primary marine liability coverage has also seen small reductions. However, the excess marine liability market remains volatile due to ongoing legal risks primarily driven by auto liability loss experience.
Cyber and management liabilities
Rapidly morphing and expanding cyber risks, growing directors and officers exposures, and a more lawsuit-prone environment continue to be a challenge. To mitigate these challenges, secure better coverage terms, invest in strong cyber protections, stay compliant with regulations, and maintain open communication with insurers. Consideration should be given to larger limits as the expense of recent cyber events continues expand.
Prepare now for tomorrow’s risks
With geopolitical tensions ongoing and marine insurance rates generally stabilizing or falling, the market remains fragile. However, top-tier businesses that work with the right partners may still find opportunities to save.
The marine insurance landscape will continue to evolve in response to climate events, geopolitical shifts, and technological disruption. As insurers adapt their models and new capacity expands, businesses must be prepared for new underwriting approaches, risk categories like cyber and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) continuing to become more critical and increasing demand for data-driven risk profiles. Those with robust risk management plans addressing offshore, onshore, and cyber exposures that can provide finite data to insurers are most likely to be best positioned.
