Op-Ed: How Trump’s win will impact global shipping
Written by
Stamatis Tsantanis
by Stamatis Tsantanis, chairman and CEO of Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. & founder, chairman and CEO of United Maritime Corporation
Shipping is the cornerstone of global trade, making it highly sensitive to policy shifts such as Trump’s proposed tariffs. These tariffs—imposing 20% on all U.S. imports and a substantial 60-100% on goods from China—could introduce considerable market volatility. While the immediate impacts on the shipping industry are likely to be noticeable, they are expected to remain limited. However, these policy changes could pave the way for more significant and lasting effects on the global shipping sector in the long term.
Dry Bulk
With the evolving dynamics of shipping routes, new opportunities are expected to emerge within the dry bulk sector. Taking into consideration the tariff situation, we anticipate that iron ore shipments will continue to perform strongly and maintain resilience. Furthermore, infrastructure development both within the U.S. and globally, combined with the rising demand for steel, is expected to drive growth in the Capesize market.
The direct impact of Trump’s tariffs on the dry bulk sector appears to be relatively limited. However, the shifting of trade routes could present new opportunities for growth across the industry. For example, with U.S. soybean exports to China declining as a result of the tariff situation, Brazilian exports—which have already reached 74 million tons, compared to 26 million tons from the U.S. in 2023—are anticipated to continue filling the global demand.
Coal Impact
Coal exports from the U.S. West Coast are expected to remain resilient, which will signal stability in a key segment of the dry bulk market.
China’s Infrastructure Surge
Analysts project that a 60% tariff could potentially slow down China’s growth by as much as 2.5% in the coming year. In response, China may roll out robust infrastructure investments, which could drive increased demand for steel. This, in turn, would lead to higher volumes of Cape-dominated iron ore and bauxite trades, contributing to additional growth to the relevant market. China’s infrastructure initiatives could provide a boost and inject fresh momentum into these markets, while further supporting long-term growth within the dry bulk sector.
Given the above factors, we expect the dry bulk market to adapt and continue to thrive amidst the evolving prospects.
Tankers
Under Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra, a significant increase in U.S. oil and gas production is expected to be seen. This surge in production has the potential to further boost U.S. exports, which would directly benefit the tanker sector. During Trump’s first term, U.S. oil and natural gas production saw remarkable growth, leading the U.S. to become the largest global oil producer in 2018. Although there was a brief decline in production due to the pandemic, U.S. oil and gas production rebounded swiftly and continued to rise during President Biden’s tenure.
A strict enforcement of Iranian sanctions might sharply reduce Iranian oil exports, which could subsequently create a significant increase in demand for mainstream tankers over the “shadow fleet”. However, on a broader scale, if Trump were to succeed in mediating peace between Russia and Ukraine, it could have a far-reaching impact on the global oil trade and lead to a normalization of global oil trade flows, which could, in turn, dampen the demand for tankers.
Containers
Container shipping faces some of the most prolonged risks under Trump’s tariff plans. The proposed plans, imposing tariffs on up to $3 trillion in annual U.S. imports, along with a minimum 60% tariff on goods imported from China, could lead to short-term surges, as companies may rush to expedite their imports, similar to the rush activity seen in 2018. However, in the longer term, as China shifts its focus toward emerging markets, the disruption to trade flows is expected to moderate relatively quickly.
