Uptick in Strait of Hormuz transits, but for how long?

Treasury Secretary Scott Besant: Iran has committed to free and open transit in the Strait of Hormuz.

After weekend reports that Iran had again closed the Strait of Hormuz, this morning brought news of an uptick in transits. That came after high-level U.S.-Iran negotiations at Switzerland’s Bürgenstock Resort concluded with progress on key issues, reportedly including Iran’s agreement to readmit IAEA nuclear inspectors and to reopening the Strait of Hormuz for oil shipments. As part of the framework, the U.S, Treasury has issued a temporary 60-day general license authorizing the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil.

Kpler assesses the Hormuz uptick as remaining fragile and notes that crossings rebounded sharply over June 19–21, with 71 confirmed transits and a weekend peak of 35 on 20 June, supported by the blockade lift and renewed free-passage signals. Commercial crossings recovered with AIS transponder ons, but volumes remain below pre-crisis norms and caution is still clear: many vessels continue using Iranian and Dark routes while demining remains incomplete. With no new physical attacks since June 10, but diplomacy still fragile, the reopening is delivering a recovery, though likely an uneven one.

The most recent update from the Joint Maritime Information Center says that over the prior 72 hours t\Strait of Hormuz traffic began increasing, with commercial vessels continuing to route south of the Traffic Separation Scheme via Omani territorial waters and via the northern Iranian-controlled route.

The maritime security threat level was lowered to MODERATE following the U.S.–Iran MOU, though mine risk persisted and clearance operations continued.

Navigation interference and IRGC hailing and surveillance activity continued.

• NAVAREA IX 180/26 (suspected floating mine at 26°24.3N 056°20.6E) remained in effect.
• A new NAVAREA IX warning, 201/26, reported a confirmed mine in a nearby position (26°24.58N 056°20.67E), reinforcing the continued risk of drifting or uncharted mines in and near the Traffic Separation Scheme.

GNSS interference remained consistent.