Op-Ed: Dry bulk shipping poised for a strong 2026

Stamatis Tsantanis

2026 should be a strong year for dry bulk shipping, especially Capesize, due to a number of factors including: resilient industrial demand, supportive global trade realignment, tight vessel supply, strong cargo flows, and tanker markets looking strong, driven by increased global energy demand and expanding trade opportunities. Overall, dry bulk enters 2026 with tight supply, improving trade visibility, and powerful ton-mile fundamentals.

Here’s more on the trends I’ll be watching in 2026:

Trade policy and geopolitical clarity

After a long period of uncertainty around tariffs and industrial policy, things finally appear to be stabilizing. The tension earlier in 2025 created a significant volatility on sentiment in physical freight, futures, and importantly on the equity markets of listed shipping companies. Now, with the recent progress in US–China discussions and the possibility of increased grain and energy flows between the two, the backdrop is improving. Additional agreements with Japan, Korea, and the EU also support a more stable trade environment. Simply removing uncertainty is itself a positive driver for shipping.

Dry bulk supply growth remains extremely limited. The global orderbook is at historically low levels, and the world fleet is aging rapidly. In Capesizes in particular:

1. New deliveries from 2022–2026 are far below long-term averages.
2. ~10% of the fleet is on order.
3. ~7% is already 20 years old.
4. By 2032, more than 40% of the fleet will exceed the typical employable age for major charterers.

Replacement of capsize vessels will struggle to keep up with retirements. Supply will remain tight for several years.

Strong long-haul demand growth from the Atlantic

This continues to be one of the strongest demand drivers for Capesize vessels. Brazil has meaningfully increased iron ore shipments and targets further growth through Vale’s expansion plans. Guinea is now becoming a major player through Simandou iron ore and rapidly expanding bauxite exports. These long-haul routes into Asia create powerful ton-mile demand that the current fleet (and limited orderbook) cannot easily absorb.

Large infrastructure programs around the world are accelerating demand for steel, cement, minerals, and energy. The United States, in particular, is entering a multi-year infrastructure cycle that is highly positive for dry bulk commodities. The Middle East is also undergoing an unprecedented infrastructure expansion, and Southeast Asia continues to grow. This global investment cycle is a major structural tailwind for bulk shipping.

AI, data centers, and the surge in energy demand

One of the most underappreciated drivers is the extraordinary increase in electricity demand coming from AI and hyperscale data centers. Many countries still rely heavily on coal-fired generation to stabilize their power grids. As a result, the global energy transition paradoxically increases coal demand in the short and medium term—and this translates directly into incremental seaborne coal flows. This is particularly important for Panamax and Capesize vessels.

If the Russia–Ukraine war moves toward resolution, we should expect a major reconstruction effort, which would significantly increase demand for iron ore, coal, steel, cement, and construction materials. The Middle East is already running fast with infrastructure spending, and any stabilization in Eastern Europe would add another major leg of demand for dry bulk shipping.

Stamatis Tsantanis is the chairman and CEO of global shipping company Seanergy Maritime and United Maritime.