New ABS projections suggest shipping will need to do more to meet GHG targets

IMAGE: ABS

ABS has published its latest trends and projections on carbon-reduction strategies for shipping as the industry looks to meet decarbonization ambitions. It suggests that though shipowners may meet IMO’s CO2 reduction targets in terms of emissions per ton of cargo carried by 2050, it will miss the target for overall GHG emissions by shipping.

Called Setting the Course to Low Carbon Shipping, the study examines new fuels, technologies and operational measures and matches that with forecasts for the world’s key trade lanes to envision what shipping may look like in 2030 and 2050.

“We have identified that the rate of shipping’s transition to lower carbon fuels will have the single biggest impact on its global carbon footprint; more than any predictable shifts in commodity demand, enhancements to operating practices, vessel routings, or ship designs.,” said Christopher J. Wiernicki, ABS Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. “The models in our research suggest our industry will meet the targets for the reduction in carbon intensity by 2050, but it might miss the target for the total GHG emitted annually. In short, there is a gap between the industry’s present course, and its stated ambition.”

The Outlook’s approach was supported by Maersk.

Palle B. Laursen, Maersk Chief Technical Officer, said: “In Maersk, we have for more than a decade been industry leaders in CO2 efficiency, and we have set ourselves the bold target of becoming carbon neutral by 2050. To bring this ambition to life, we need to bring the first commercially viable carbon neutral vessel into operation by 2030 already, which can only happen if we work together across the industry and supply chain, which is why the research from ABS on decarbonization pathways and what shipping may look like in the future is well timed. The study is thorough and comprehensive, and links the task ahead with practical steps of implementation.”

ABS collaborated with Maritime Strategies International (MSI) to create a global scenario for the future CO2 emissions from shipping, which takes into account the future variation of fuels used in vessels, as well as the decarbonization of different industrial sectors on which shipping depends. ABS also worked with Herbert Engineering Corp. (HEC) to develop a series of tanker, bulk carrier and containership design concepts to explore practical options for meeting IMO greenhouse gas goals.

Research in the Outlook suggests that, on the current trajectory, petroleum-based fuels will still have considerable market share by 2050, which has significant implications for meeting the emissions challenge.

You can hear more from ABS sustainability experts on carbon reduction strategies for shipping at an upcoming webinar. Register HERE

Download a copy of Setting the Course to Low Carbon Shipping HERE