Cruising boom ahead

Meyer Werft newbuildAUGUST 23, 2013 — The cruise market is forecast to exhibit dynamic growth in the period up to 2025, taking annual passenger demand up from around 20.9 million passengers in 2012 to approximately 24 million by 2015, 29.7million by 2020 and 36.4 million by 2025. This represents an overall forward expansion of 74%.

The predictions are made in "World Cruise Ports and Shipping," the latest publication from U.K.- based market consultants Ocean Shipping Consultants.

The report says that North America will still dominate the world cruise industry in terms of sourced passengers and cruise operators, but Europe and Asia Pacific are expected to grow strongly. This will have major implications for cruise capacity deployment, cruise ports development, cruise ship construction and cruise ship repair.

The 200 page, $1,450 report is the eleventh in-depth passenger shipping industry analysis published by OSC since 1992. The detail and range of the analysis and forecasts in the new report are even greater than those in previous publications, and represent the most up to date and comprehensive set of analysis and forecasts available on international cruise shipping.

The reports findings on Cruise Ship Construction, Repair and Price include:

  • European shipyards still remain the world center of cruise ship construction, although cruise shipbuilding has seen increased competition within a reduced marketplace in recent years, and the threat from outside Europe, in particular Asia, is strong and increasing.
  • The largest part of world cruise ship repair work is handled by the large repair yards of the U.S., and of a number of West European countries. For major refits, a small number of specialist large European yards are prominent.
  • Price changes over the mid-2000s were relatively small-scale until the wider shipbuilding boom saw average per berth prices rise dramatically from the $197,000 of 2006 to almost $350,000 in 2009.
  • Since then, the newbuilding price has seen decline (as for other ship types), with average $/berth price levels approximating a little over $250,000 in 2012. The 2013 deliveries appear to follow the recent trend, with an average $/berth of $198,000 for three large vessels.
  • With world cruise passenger volume forecast to grow,Required cruise ship capacity is expected to increase from the current 464,000 berths (2012) to 866,000 berths by 2025.
  • On the basis of a set of reasonable assumptions on average vessel life, and a rising average vessel size for newbuildings, the number of extra vessels required (in addition to the current orderbook) to meet the projected cruise demand is estimated to approximate five vessels in 2014, and 9-13 vessels in the following years to 2025.
  • If recent average $/berth prices are applied to the newbuildings, this implies an extra required investment (in addition to the current orderbook) of $11.4 billion for the period of 2013-15, $41 billion and $49 billion for 2015-20 and 2020-25 respectively.

 cruise ship demand

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