CRUISING: THE BIG, THE BOUTIQUE AND THE BUSTED

Cover pic shows Sea SLICE passing under San Francisco's Golden Gate BridgeCarnival Corporation & plc Chairman and CEO Micky Arison has once again ensured that there will be some smiling faces at next month’s Seatrade Cruise Shipping event in Miami. Last month, Carnival’s Genoa-based Costa Cruises unit signed a letter of intent with Italy’s Fincantieri Cantieri Navali S.p.A. to construct a 112,000-gross ton cruise ship to be delivered in the summer of 2006. To be built at the Sestri Ponente shipyard, the new vessel will have a total cost of some 450 million euros (about $548 million).
The as-yet-unnamed ship, which will have 1,502 staterooms with a total guest capacity of 3,800, will be the largest passenger ship in the history of Italian seafaring. It is expected to be deployed in the Mediterranean year-round.

The announcement came as the newest jewel in Carnival’s crown, the world’s largest passenger vessel ever, Cunard’s Queen Mary 2, built by Alstom’s Chantiers de l’Atlantique in France, was making its maiden voyage to Fort Lauderdale and just two days after the Speaker of the Finnish Parliament (in an upscale version of a Customer Appreciation Day) had presented Arison with the insignia of Commander, First Class, of the Order of the Lion of Finland at a party to celebrate the completion of the 86,000 gt Carnival Miracle at Kvaerner Masa-Yards in Finland.

BROKEN DREAMS
Meantime. at the other end of the cruise shipping spectrum, recent weeks have been a little less happy—with passenger dreams being shattered as banks snatch back newbuildings contracted in more ebullient times.

Thus Royal Olympic Cruise Lines has had to agree to the judicial sale of its two 800 m Blohm + Voss built cruise ships, Olympia Voyager, delivered in 2002, and Olympia Explorer, delivered in 2000.

And at press time Festival Cruise Lines said it was negotiating with French bank Credit Agricole after Alstom, parent of the builder of three of its ships, Chantiers de l’Atlantique, had gotten together with other creditors to secure the detention of the 1,200 passenger Mistral and the 1,550 passenger each European Vision and European Stars.
In the post 9/11 world, to be successful in cruising you either have to have a very special niche or be one of the Big Three (Carnival, Royal Caribbean or Star Cruises) and have the muscle and resources to weather tough times.


SHIP SHUFFLE
One of the Big Three that’s had its resilience well and truly tested is Malaysian-based Star Cruises, parent of Norwegian Caribbean Line (NCL).

Last year, Star’s Asian operations were hit by the SARS epidemic. Then, later in the year the venerable Norway (ex-France) suffered a boiler explosion. Subsequently, Norway has been parked at Lloyd Werft, Bremerhaven, awaiting the manufacture and delivery of boiler parts. While there, it has been serving as a training ship for NCL as it gears up for its NCL America, U.S.-flag operation in Hawaii. Also at Lloyd Werft, of course, is the Pride of America, the ship that was to have been the first cruise ship built in the U.S. in decades. Last month, freak storms hit Bremerhaven and the newbuilding became flooded, listed and grounded at the yard. It soon became apparent that delivery delays would be a matter of months, not weeks.

Fortunately for the U.S. crews already hired for NCL America, NCL was able, as part of a large organization to pull a ship shuffle that will see the Norwegian Sky reflagged to the U.S. register ahead of schedule to become Pride of Aloha and take on Pride of America’s itinerary. To make up for the shortfall in NCL’s Alaska capacity caused by the early departure of Norwegian Sky, Star Cruises will switch its SuperStar Leo to NCL.

MARKET STILL GROWING
What’s making it tough for some smaller lines to keep up with their payments, is the fact that cruising remains the travel industry’s best consumer bargain.

Low prices have helped keep the numbers of cruise passengers growing. According to the latest figures available, more than 2.6 million people cruised on Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) member line ships in the third quarter of 2003, including more than 2.1 million North Americans.

“With nearly 7.2 million passengers worldwide (including more than 6 million North Americans) traveling on CLIA ships in the first three quarters of the year, the industry is on pace to reach our original estimate of 9.6 million passengers worldwide (8.3 million North Americans) for another record-setting year,” says CLIA executive director Bob Sharak.

The third-quarter figures reflect an 8.92 percent increase worldwide (5.49 percent North American passengers) over the same period last year and contribute to an 11.85 percent hike worldwide over figures for the first nine months of 2002.

“Growth of the industry in the past five years has been phenomenal,” says Mark Conroy, CLIA chairman and president of Radisson Seven Seas Cruises. And, he believes, “there’s still plenty of room to grow, since only 15 percent of the total U.S. population is estimated to have ever taken a cruise.”

Adds Sharak, “It is thanks to the joint efforts of the industry and its professional travel agent partners that CLIA ships sailed at 103.2 percent occupancy during the first three quarters of 2003.”
The CLIA fleet represents about 97 percent of cruise capacity marketed to North America. From 1980 through 2002, growth in cruise capacity has averaged 8.3 percent annually, keeping pace with demand and the 8.4 percent annual passenger growth the industry has experienced since 1980.

WHEN WILL MORE SHIPS HAVE TO BE ORDERED?
Though there has been a trickle of newbuilding orders since 9/11, the current order book is now a lot slimmer than once was the case.
There are currently just 19 cruise ships on order worldwide for delivery between now and the end of 2006. Only two of these are for lines not associated with the Big Three. Nine of the ships are over 100,000 gt and only five have less than 2,000 lower berths.

If cruise capacity expansion is to be sustained at recent levels, it seems reasonable to suppose that the pace of ordering will soon pick up.

Several factors could help the market absorb more new ships. One is the industry’s success in locating more ships in more places—another is its success in finding new markets where it can deploy really large ships. At one time it was supposed that the market for post-Panamax cruise liners would be limited to the Caribbean. That’s no longer the case, as demonstrated by the decision to build the new 112,000 gt Costa ship for Mediterranean operations.

An interesting result of the trend to homeport ships near major population centers is Royal Caribbean’s agreement with the Bayonne Local Redevelopment Authority (BLRA) to construct and operate a new cruise port facility at the former Bayonne Military Ocean Terminal in New Jersey. The new facility will serve as a seasonal homeport to two Royal Caribbean International ships, including one of the world’s largest cruise ships, the 3,114-passenger Voyager of the Seas, which makes its New York metro area debut ithis May.

Royal Caribbean will base two ships from the Royal Caribbean International brand at the new port from May through October 2004. The company’s Celebrity Cruises brand also will return to the area, with two ships sailing from the New York City Passenger Ship Terminal in Manhattan.

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